"The action I am taking is no more than a radical measure to hasten the explosion of truth and justice. I have but one passion: to enlighten those who have been kept in the dark, in the name of humanity which has suffered so much and is entitled to happiness. My fiery protest is simply the cry of my very soul. Let them dare, then, to bring me before a court of law and let the enquiry take place in broad daylight!" - Emile Zola, J'accuse! (1898) -

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Olmert To Resign; Iran Attack More Likely In The Window That Has Been Discussed Now For A Week.

The Other day I Posted an Analysis That Indicated that Israel and the Israeli military were uncomfortable with the idea of Olmert leading them in a confrontation with Iran.

With his stepping aside and diminished influence if not imprisonment before all is said and done, there is sufficient time for Israel to reconstitute a new government and exercise the unilateral prerogative of striking Iran between the close of the polls in the scheduled election of November 4, 2008 and the scheduled exit of Bush and company, from the premises on January 20, 2009. I am not going to go into the all the permutations of what that strike in that window of time could yield. We have been done that discussion path often enough, and it is not good!

There is also sufficient time to Israel to judge the likely outcome of the American Election and if it is obvious that McCain is failing; there is no reason for an Israeli Hawk to delay!

Olmert's vow to quit shakes peace talks
Reuters - 33 minutes ago
By Allyn Fisher-Ilan and Adam Entous JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Middle East peacemaking was in turmoil on Thursday after Ehud Olmert, dogged by corruption probes ...

Israeli politicians and analysts said Olmert's surprise announcement could force an early national election which opinion polls show could be won by rightist leader, Benjamin Netanyahu. We already know he would not hesitate to attack!

"I have decided I won't run in the Kadima movement primaries, nor do I intend to intervene in the elections," Olmert said, referring to his ruling centrist party, from his official residence in Jerusalem.

"When a new (Kadima party) chairman is chosen, I will resign as prime minister to permit them to put together a new government swiftly and effectively," Olmert said.

"I was forced to defend myself against relentless attacks from self-appointed 'fighters for justice' who sought to depose me from my position, when the ends sanctified all the means"

With Palestinian talks going nowhere, Iran jumps to top of in-tray ...
guardian.co.uk, UK - 2 hours ago
Whoever succeeds Olmert will find Iran the hottest item in their in-tray. Olmert's departure could mean uncertainty for peace talks on another front: Syria. ...

Report: Obama 'gets the feeling' Israel to strike Iran if ...
Ha'aretz, Israel - 4 hours ago
Near the close of his visit to Israel last week, Obama met with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. A major topic of their long conversation was Obama's declared ...

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama confided to fellow Democrats in Congress that he "gets the feeling from [his talks]" during his trip abroad that Israel would strike Iran if the sanctions fail to halt Tehran's nuclear program, ABC News reported Wednesday.

"Nobody said this to me directly but I get the feeling from my talks that if the sanctions don't work Israel is going to strike Iran," Obama was quoted as telling Democratic congressmen Tuesday, according to ABC News.

Near the close of his visit to Israel last week, Obama met with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. A major topic of their long conversation was Obama's declared willingness to engage in direct dialogue with Tehran.

Obama reportedly told Olmert that he is interested in meeting the Iranians in order to issue clear ultimatums. "If after that, they still show no willingness to change their nuclear policy, then any action against them would be legitimate," an Israeli source quoted him as saying…..

Just last month, Israel conducted a complex military exercise, involving more than 150 aircraft flying 900 miles over the Mediterranean Sea, that was widely interpreted as a rehearsal for an air strike against Iran's dozens of nuclear facilities. A top former officer from Mossad (the Israeli equivalent of the CIA) told TIME that Israel is mindful that an air strike on Iran would jolt the U.S. presidential election — probably rebounding badly on Republican contender Senator John McCain. Sources say that Israel sees a narrow "window of opportunity" for military action opening up between November and the swearing-in of the new American President next January. "No Israel leader wants to be blamed for destroying the Republican chances," says the former Mossad officer.

But will Israel really go it alone and attack Iran if talks break down, or is the threat simply a bluff aimed at prompting the U.S. and Europe to step up the pressure on Tehran? Until now, Israel has been using a "hold me back, or I'll do something crazy" tactic, concedes the ex–Mossad officer.

Fears of Decreased Supply out of Middle East Push up Oil
CEP News, Canada - 5 hours ago
There is the potential that Olmert's successor will be more likely to launch an Israeli attack on Iran, thereby helping to cut off production of oil. ...