Sunday, November 2, 2008
It Is Time For Me To Have My Say. The Only Way Obama Can Lose Is The Election Is Stolen Or There Are A Helluva A Lot Of Liars Talking To Pollsters!
Posted by ed. dickau at 8:12 AM
It Is Time For Me To Have My Say. The Only Way Obama Can Lose Is The Election Is Stolen Or There Are A Helluva A Lot Of Liars Talking To Pollsters!
For a nation recently conditioned to nail-biting elections that stretch from Tuesday into Wednesday and perhaps into December, this year offers something different. The Media Mental Midgets are trying their damnedest to fashion a sound bite scenario line with their "Verbal Lint" for the last 48 hours to sound something like: “Race Tightening as we reach the finish line”, “possible hidden vote in undecided; anything to keep this horse race alive when one of the horses died before it rounded the last turn and all the media and right wing screaming is for their horse to “Get Up”. Lazarus he ain’t!
Two days before the election, John McCain is behind in every legitimate national poll, (and yes there are a few skewed “Bastard Polls” afloat among McCain Bloggers with the tag line “MoveOn pissing their pants”) and in polls in nearly every swing state.
Barring an unforeseen incident or a well-hidden trove of voters in key states across the country, the Republican Arizona “Maverick Senator” appears to have been beaten to the draw and his campaign has been laying face down in the dust long before a “High Noon” show down defeated and done in.
While Florida and Ohio offered a dramatic coda to the past two elections, Pennsylvania and Virginia could end the competitive stage of the race quickly this year on election night. The Media midgets has best have a script “B” ready to replace their opening hour verbal lint babble of Tuesday night. Maybe that ought to be (script “O’ Obama or Script “H” Historic)!
Pennsylvania hasn't gone to a Republican since 1988, and Virginia hasn't gone to a Democrat since 1964. If Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois carries both, as most polling now suggests he will, McCain has no plausible path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the race. That is because the most conservative estimate for Obama suggests he has secured at least 238 electoral votes. I have well above 300 electoral votes!
McCain has effectively bet his campaign on winning Pennsylvania. But despite his many visits there in recent weeks, he remains behind by 12 percentage points in recent polls.
"I've not seen anybody in the modern history of Pennsylvania coming back from 12 down," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College, whose polling has tracked Pennsylvania politics since 1992. "But it's his last stand. I understand why he's here." Well Terry you may understand but: there is that old phrase about “Beating A Dead Horse”!
At the same time, McCain neglected Virginia, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
"They've got a particular death wish in Virginia. It's amazing," Sabato said. "They really didn't think it was going to be competitive." Larry, they really believed their own spin line of “Real Virginians” live in Southern Virginia. The truth of the matter that escaped their analysts is that the Blue of Northern Virginia has been riding south for some time and in the 2006 elections Richmond had become a shade of Blue- Purple. Economics facts and registration have diluted a diminishing red in Virginia’s “Old Southland”! The times; they are a changing!
For Obama, the electoral path is relatively simple: Win the usual Democratic states and peel off at least one previously Republican state like Ohio. That war is in its final battle. The cards have been played to remind everyone of “The Stolen State” in dramatic fashion in Cleveland Federal Court tomorrow and MuKasey found a line of activist organizations and opinion makers in the streets, guns drawn, and warning don’t even try to walk into town like Boehner and Bush wanted you to! He didn’t. There is going to no “confuse you loose” gambit in play in Ohio; the focus has been maintained and the Obama Army is on the march!
By contrast, McCain has to preserve nearly every swing state President Bush carried four years ago, even as many of them now lean to Obama. Obama has forced McCain to piss away every coin in the piggy bank on poor bets at best.
Instead of closing the gap in the campaign's climactic final weeks, McCain has fallen further behind, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of registration trends, voting histories and polling data compiled by the nonpartisan Real Clear Politics.
"Obama's going to get way more than 300 electoral votes," Sabato said. "The 'R' (for Republican) matters. It's a scarlet letter, and McCain is wearing it." I like that!
Two that could settle it.
McCain has concentrated much of the final two weeks of the campaign on an effort to wrest Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes from Democrats. The mad, mad media and right spin masters have made too much ado about the final McCain show in Pennsylvania. It has been Economy-Dyed-Blue and Carpet Bombed Registrationed Big Blue. With the track muddied. McCain has been mired down in the back stretch.
In 2004, Bush also hoped to compete for Pennsylvania. He lost the state by 2.5 percentage points, in part because Democrats had 500,000 more registered voters then than Republicans. Today, Democrats there have 1.2 million more registered voters than the GOP.
Four years ago, Democrat John Kerry led in 18 of the 23 polls taken in Pennsylvania after mid-October; three showed a tie. This year, Obama has led 53 of the 55 Pennsylvania polls taken since May. Two polls in mid-September were tied. They were flawed in their modeling.
Kerry's biggest lead from October to the election was 8 points in one poll. Obama has led by 10 or more points in 16 polls since the beginning of October.
The McCain campaign notes that Obama lost the state's April primary to Hillary Clinton.
But Obama still spent weeks campaigning in the state and set up dozens of offices there. McCain, who had clinched the GOP nomination by early February, reportedly had three offices there in late July.
Also, Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, is a Pennsylvania native and now represents neighboring Delaware. Say what you want, but there are a significant number of folks backing “their Scranton guy”. Who says a Veep choice doesn’t matter. Joe helps and Palin had become a pair of leaden, over sized poorly fitted horse shoes as she stumbles and whinnies in pain all over the track.
Virginia, meanwhile, is one of the clearest signs of the crumbling GOP electoral coalition. The “Old Dominion” is being fashion into the “New Dominator” as the “Battle Cry: Turn Virginia Blue” is about to reach fruition behind Jockeys: Warner, Kain, Webb and up and coming Gubernatorial Colt Moran of Alexandria Virginia. When this is over it will be a helluva a job to dissect whose coat tails did what here…Warner or Obama. I suspect it will be a photo finish on that issue. We won’t much care here Tuesday night.
Bush carried the state by 8 percentage points in each of his elections.
For months, polls indicated that Virginia would be close this year. McCain led 15 of the 31 polls between May and September, with two ties. But since October, Obama has led all 22 polls taken in that state.
The change in Virginia's political loyalties lies largely in the rapid growth of the state, especially in the Washington suburbs in the north. That region has had a heavy influx of young, white-collar professionals who tend to favor Obama and Democrats.
Still, three polls last week showed McCain within 4 points in Virginia, and he and his running mate, Sarah Palin, drew one of their largest crowds there, 23,000. It won’t be enough; the registration program has packed the ballot box.
Notorious Florida, Ohio are key.
Even if McCain survives winning at least one of those two states, he can't win without carrying Florida. It is almost impossible for him to win without Ohio, and no Republican ever has. Obama, however, can win without either.
Florida typifies the all-or-nothing problem McCain now faces.
It is a state that has voted for a Democrat only once since 1980 and, along with the South, has been regarded as an electoral counterbalance to Democratic dominance in California and the Northeast.
After lagging in Florida most of the summer, Obama caught McCain in the polls in mid- September. Recent polls suggest Obama has a narrow lead heading into Election Day. I’ll admit this one could be a photo finish and this is still the state that requires the closest voting scrutiny of any in the nation with Ohio second in the running followed by Pennsylvania particularly Philadelphia.
This year, Democrats have 650,000 more registered voters in Florida than Republicans, a margin nearly double what they had in 2000 and 2004. And Blacks in the conservative northern part of the state may vote in more sizable undisclosed numbers, experts say.
In Ohio, McCain led in 20 of the 38 polls taken there between May and September, with two ties. Since October, Obama has led in 27 of the 33 polls, with one tie.
Democrats also have a sizable advantage in new voter registrations, though at least 200,000 are considered suspect by the state's GOP. Still, Democrats won big in state and congressional elections in 2006. The 200,000 are safe at the moment and a convincing Obama victory nationwide would smash a post-election strategy of another litigated-theft election.
(Insert: McCain Advisor Says Voter Fraud is a “Perception” that “Plants Seeds of Doubt”)
For weeks Republican leaders have warned that widely reported problems with fake voter registrations could result in a flood of phony votes in pivotal states.
But Ronald Michaelson, a veteran election administrator and member of the McCain-Palin Honest and Open Election Committee, said in an interview that he could not name a single instance in which this had occurred.
“Do we have a documented instance of voting fraud that resulted from a phony registration form? No, I can’t cite one, chapter and verse.”)
But still, recent presidential history suggests McCain could still compete in both states despite the unfavorable polls…the closet racist factor!
Others lean blue, too.
After that, there are a string of remaining states left, most of which are trending toward Obama.
In New Hampshire, Obama has led in 26 of the 28 polls since May. The state's registration figures are nearly even after a surge for Democrats. Still, McCain's two critical primary wins - he also won the state eight years ago in his first bid for the White House - and Obama's surprising primary loss there suggests it is at least possible for McCain to win. It was the only state that Bush won in 2000 and lost in 2004.
North Carolina is another GOP mainstay that seems on the verge of a shift. Republicans have carried the state all but once since 1968, and Bush carried it by 13 points and then 12 points. The state has under lying racial tensions that no one wants to admit to, and having experienced them first hand I am tempted to observe that they are not as great as their loud ignorant voices that appeared intimidated at early voter lines. The Perdue and Hagan races have drawn hysterical reactions from the state’s Republicans that hopefully will have contributed to major finishing backfire. A close victory for all Democrats in North Carolina should be considered a major triumph as it will signal a turning Blue and returning of the South to the Blue column as priority for the future.
Early in this campaign, that trend seemed likely to stick: McCain led all 22 polls taken there between May and mid-September. Near the end of that period, he had leads of 17 and 20 points in two polls. But after the bailout crisis, Obama has led in 22 of the 35 polls, with seven ties. McCain's six leads have been 3 points or less. Only one of Obama's leads was larger than the polls' margin of error, suggesting the race still is a toss-up, but I will say the early turnout was very encouraging.
Colorado has voted Republican in every presidential election but two since 1952. Still, of the 30 polls taken there since September, Obama has led in 28, with one tie. Voter registration figures in the state, where Democrats held their convention, also show a shift away from the Republican Party, though the GOP maintains a slim lead. And Democrats have a string of wins in state and congressional races going back to 2004.
In Nevada, McCain has seen an early edge melt away as the campaign has unfolded. Between May and September, McCain led in nine of the 14 polls in that state. In October, Obama won 13 of the 14 polls, with one tie two weeks ago.
In 2004, Republicans had 4,000 more registered voters than Democrats. Today, Democrats lead by at least 80,000.
Missouri is regarded as the national bellwether for presidential politics, and Bush won it by 7 points four years ago. Between April and late September, McCain led 14 of the 16 polls in that state. Since then, Obama has led 10 of 20 Missouri polls, with one tie. Most areas of the state are solidly Republican, but in St. Louis, Obama and the Democrats can run up lopsided returns. In late October, Obama drew the WOW! 100,000 to a rally in the city, suggesting the state could be competitive.
Additionally, McCain has effectively conceded Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, none of which has voted for a Republican for president in 20 years.
The two states that changed from Democratic to Republican in 2004, Iowa and New Mexico, also appear safe for Obama.
West Virginia is the only competitive state where McCain has consistently led in the polls.
Colorado 50.5-45.0-Obama +5.5
Michigan 52.0-39.3-Obama +12.7
Minnesota 52.3-40.8-Obama +11.5
Missouri 47.3-48.0-McCain +0.7
New Hampshire 52.7 -42.0-Obama +10.7
New Mexico 50.3-43.0-Obama +7.3
North Carolina 47.8-47.5-Obama +0.3
Pennsylvania 51.2-44.2-Obama +7.0
Wisconsin 52.8-41.8-Obama +11.0
Tracking Polls: Obama +5 to +10
RCP Electoral Count-291-132-Oba ma +159
No Toss Up States-353-185-Obama +168
Rove appointee sends an ugly message to would-be Obama assassins
There certainly were a lot of disturbing questions raised by Colorado U.S. attorney Troy Eid's refusal to prosecute three white-supremacist tweakers caught conspiring to assassinate Barack Obama before this year's Democratic National Convention in Denver. (Brad Jacobson and Nicole also reported on this.)
Now, as Jacobson reports at Raw Story, those questions are taking on a serious cast:
http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/neo-nazis-obama-and-real-domestic-te
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