Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Responding to a question raised by those who choose not to see the realities!
Posted by ed. dickau at 6:09 PMResponding to a question in my earlier post of today: “It may be too late already!” as regards the (%) or numbers of the electorate involved in the Primary Voting process; let me offer this bite size analysis. If the eventual turn out in The November 2008 General Election should equal or approximate that of the 2004 Presidential Election it is both safe and fair to say that we will have heard from (25-27%) of that number. {That leaves a full 75% who have not voiced their opinion and choice in the primary process.} These calculations include the numbers, and now easily projected numbers in the primaries remaining, for both the Democrat and Republican primary turnouts.
Do I expect the turnout in the November 2008 General election to surpass that of the 2004 election? Yes, all indicators point that way, and barring a significant down turn of interest in the upcoming election I can see foresee a much better, although not historic turnout for that contest.
Having said that, and we are talking in a very fair and conservative analysis of the numbers crunched here; that means that the (“heard from”: 25-27% figure will drift lower). The point remains that despite all the hype to date, only a minority of Americans have spoken!
The thus far absent and silent majority can scream with serious consequences in November.
Projecting Michigan and Florida primary turnouts, should a vote/revote ever take place have been reasonably inflated by 4%. That inflation has a minimal impact upon the (25-27% figure).
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